An Investigation of Coal Demand in China Based on the Variable Weight Combination Forecasting Model  

基于变权组合预测模型探讨中国煤炭需求(英文)

作　　者：赵国浩[1] 郭淑芬[1] 申屠菁[1] 王永光[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院,太原030006

出　　处：《Journal of Resources and Ecology》2011年第2期126-131,共6页资源与生态学报（英文版）

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation in China (No.70873079 and 70941022);Shanxi Natural Science Foundation (No.2009011021-1);Shanxi International Science and Technology Cooperation Foundation (2008081014)

摘　　要：Variable weight combination forecasting combines individual forecasting models after giving them proper weights at each time point. Weight is the type of function that changes with forecast time. A relatively rational description of the system can be proposed with the forecasting method, which is of higher precision and better stability. Two individual forecasting models, grey system forecasting and multiple regression forecasting, were generated based on the historical data and influencing factors of coal demand in China from 1981 to 2008. According to the theory of combination forecasting, the variable weight combination forecasting model was formulated to forecast coal demand in China for the next 12 years.变权组合预测是对各个单项预测模型在各时点上赋予适当权重进行组合,而权重是随预测时间变化的函数。该方法具有较高的预测精度和预测稳定性,能比较合理地描述系统的客观现实。本文依据1981-2008年的中国煤炭需求历史数据及对煤炭需求的影响因素,分别建立灰色系统、多元回归两个单项预测模型,构建了中国煤炭需求的变权组合预测模型,对中国未来12年煤炭需求进行了预测。

关 键 词：Variable Weight Combination Forecasting Model coal demand energy resources management 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济] F224