仿真环境下基于含权获得值法的项目绩效分析  

Project performance analysis based on weight earned value method by simulation

作　　者：徐哲[1] 王舒[1] 毛婧颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《计算机集成制造系统》2011年第7期1553-1561,共9页Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70871004);航空科技创新基金资助项目(07E51009)~~

摘　　要：传统获得值方法为确定性方法,不符合大型工程项目不确定性的特点,并且是从项目整体对绩效进行评价,没有区分构成项目的关键活动与非关键活动对项目绩效的不同影响。为此,基于随机S曲线方法,根据活动的关键程度赋予不同的权重,提出基于活动的含权获得值方法,综合项目整体绩效和关键路径绩效进行绩效监测。根据绩效监测结果,对正在进行和尚未开始的关键活动和非关键活动的费用和时间参数分别进行调整,采用仿真方法预测项目未来绩效,获得项目完成时费用偏差和工期偏差等信息,实现对项目绩效的预测。结合一个三层住宅工程案例,说明了所提方法在项目管理实践中的应用。Traditional earned value method was a deterministic method,it was not in accordance with uncertainty of large-scale engineering projects.It also conducted performance evaluation from the perspective of overall project.It didn＇t distinguish different effects from critical activities and non-critical activities.To solve these problems,based on S curves method,a new approach of weight earned value was put forward according to the different weight given by critical level of activties.Performance monitoring was carried out by integrating project performance and critical path performance.According to the performance monitoring result,the cost and time parameters of the activities which were in progress or not started yet were adjusted.Simulation method was used to predict future project performance,the Cost Variation at Completion（CVAC） and the Schedule Variation at Completion（SVAC） were obtained and the forecast of project performance was realized.A case study of a 3-story housing project was provided to demonstrate the application of the proposed method in project management.

关 键 词：含权获得值法 项目绩效监测 预测 仿真 项目管理 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]