基于情景分析法的广东交通运输节能减排潜力研究  

On Potential in Reduction of Emission of Guangdong Transportation Industries Based on Situation Analysis

作　　者：黄莹[1] 廖翠萍[1] 赵黛青[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院广州能源研究所,广东广州510640

出　　处：《开放导报》2011年第4期40-43,共4页China Opening Journal

摘　　要：随着社会经济的快速发展,交通部门的能源消费和温室气体排放急剧增加。在全球应对气候变化的背景下,如何促进交通的低碳发展成为人们关注的重点。本文采用情景分析的方法,通过预测不同情景下广东省2020年交通运输部门的能源需求和碳排放,分析不同政策选择对交通部门能源需求和碳排放的影响,进而梳理出广东省交通部门的节能减排途径。With the rapid development of social economic,the energy consumption and GHG emissions in transport sector are increased dramatically.In the global context of climate change,how to promote the development of low carbon transport has become the focus of attention.In this paper,we calculate the energy consumption and GHG emissions in transport sector of Guangdong in 2020 by adopting the scenario analysis method,analyze the effects of different policy potions,and then sort out the energy saving and GHG emission reduction way of transport sector in Guangdong.

关 键 词：情景分析法 低碳交通 节能减排潜力 广东省 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]