GDP与能源消费之间的关系研究  

Reresearch on the Relationship Between GDP and Energy Consumption

作　　者：鄢琼伟[1,2] 陈浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]中国地质大学财务处,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第7期13-19,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

摘　　要：选取中国1985-2009年能源消费总量与GDP的年度数据作为研究样本,运用Eviews对时间序列的GDP和能源消费总量进行单位根检验、协整检验、Engle-Grange因果关系检验。结果发现,GDP、能源消费总量的二阶差分在5%的显著性水平下是平稳的;GDP、能源消费总量在5%的显著性水平下,存在协整关系;Engle-Grange因果检验结果显示,在5%的显著性水平下,GDP与能源消费的因果影响关系不明显,但长期能源消费对GDP存在单向因果关系。从研究的结论来看,GDP增长引起能源需求和消费内生性的增长,减少能源的消费不影响产出、就业、收入的增长。要解决我国目前经济发展过程中诸多矛盾,使经济持续发展,首先,必须积极开发新能源、提高能源利用效率、调整能源战略、实施能源保护和节能政策来弥补我国能源短缺,提供充足的能源供给作为保障。其次,要转变经济增长方式、调整产业结构,尤其是工业结构;加快技术创新、发展高新技术产业和知识密集型产业,使我国经济发展摆脱对能源的依赖。Choosing the annual data of total energy consumption and GDP in China from 1985 to 2009 as the research sample,this paper tests the roots of unity,the cointegration and the Engle-Grange causality for the data of total GDP of time series and the energy consumption by using Eviews software.The result shows that the second order difference of GDP and the energy consumption remains steady when it is at 5% significance level.And there is a cointegration relationship for energy consumption and GDP when it is at 5% significance level.Moreover,the Engle-Grange causality test shows that the causality relationship from GDP to energy consumption isn＇t clear at 5% significance level,but there exists one-way causality relationship from the long-term energy consumption to the GDP.As to the research conclusion,the GDP growth causes energy needs and consumption endogenetic growth;energy consumption reduction does not affect the growth of output,employment and income.In order to solve many conflicts to keep a sustained economic growth in our country presently,first of all,we should solve the energy shortage problem by developing new energies,raising energy efficiency,adjusting energy strategy,implementing energy conservation and the energy saving policy in our country so as to provide a sufficient energy supply as a guarantee.Second,we must transform the way of economic growth,adjust the industrial structure,particularly the industry structure,speed up technological innovation,and develop high and new technology industry and the knowledge-intensive industry in order to get rid of the dependence on energy in our country in its economic development.

关 键 词：GDP 能源消费 研究 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]