强对流天气短期预报θ_(se)特型法的业务应用  

Operating application of severe convective short range forecast and θ se characteristic method

作　　者：胡富泉[1] 郭敏[1] 张家澄[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海中心气象台

出　　处：《成都气象学院学报》1999年第3期239-245,共7页

摘　　要：θｓｅ特型法，一种强对流天气的短期预报方法，它把强对流天气预报化成预报引发背景条件下高能量预警型的强对流大概率事件．用此法在１９９５～１９９８年进行上海地区强对流天气短期预报的试验，准确率达８９％。The θ se characteristic method for the short range prediction of severe convective weather turns the severe convective weather forecast into a high probability event of the high energy presaging type under the Trigger mechanism condition with an accuracy 89% between 1995～1998 in Shanghai area.

关 键 词：特型法 条件概率 强对流 天气短期预报 预警系统 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]