用水氡最大变化率法对强震时间作中短期预报  

MID SHORT TERM PREDICTION TO STRONG EARTHQUAKE TIME BY WATER RADON MINIMUM VARIATION RATE METHOD

作　　者：王吉易[1] 郑云贞[1] 张素欣[1] 邢玉安[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局,石家庄050021 [2]中国地震局分析预报中心,北京100036

出　　处：《华北地震科学》1999年第4期1-6,共6页North China Earthquake Sciences

基　　金：中国地震局"九五"攻关子专题!(95-04-04-01-04)

摘　　要：介绍了水氡变化率的物理含义以及变化率动态图象的生成方法。强震前在动态图象上存在着变化率≥0.06 高值异常区;异常区中心的最大变化率随时间有规律地演化,且与发震时间有着良好的统计关系。据此提出4 个时间预测指标。检验性预测结果表明,预测的发震时间段长短大多数为2 至6 个月,可满足强震的中短期预报尺度的需要。This paper has produced the physical meaning of the water radon variation rate and the production method of the dynamic pattern of the variation rate.Before strong earthquakes,the dynamic pattern showed high value anomalous areas of vaviation rate> 0.06 ;the maximum variation rate in the center of the anomalous area showed regular evolution with time and showed a good statistical relation to earthquake occurrence time.Based on this,four time preciction indexes have been presented.The testing prediction result showed that the predicted earthquake occurrence time stages mostly lasted from two to six months and could be satisfied with the need of mid short term prediction for strong earthquakes.

关 键 词：水氡 变化率 中期预测 发震时间 短期预报 强震 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]