珠三角一小时城市圈房地产价格影响因素对房价及其波动的影响程度研究  

Study on the Impact Degree of the Influential Factors on the House Price and Its Fluctuation in the One-hour-tour City Agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta

作　　者：杨元梅[1] 谭术魁[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学土地管理系,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2011年第6期54-59,共6页China Land Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"‘小产权房'问题的实证研究"(08BJY053)

摘　　要：研究目的:研究珠三角一小时城市圈房价与其影响因素的相关关系,揭示各影响因素对该地区房价及其波动的影响程度。研究方法:计量经济分析方法和建模。研究结果:研究区房价与其影响因素之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;GDP与房价之间存在双向因果关系,GDP变化对房价波动的贡献最大。研究结论:研究珠三角一小时城市圈的房价波动应把握该地区的经济发展形势这条主线;各影响因素对房价波动的影响程度存在差异,应当综合考虑多种影响因素对房价进行调控。The purpose of this study is to research the relationship between the price and the factors in the one-hour-tour city agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta, and reveal the impact degree of the factors on the house price in the area. Methods of econometric analysis and demonstration modeling were employed. The results indicate that there is a long-term and stable co-integrative relation between the house prices and the studied factors in the area. Meanwhile, there is the bilateral causality between GDP and house price, along which the GDP＇s contribution to the change of house price is the highest. It is concluded that the economic development situation is the main clue for studying the house price fluctuation in the area, and due to the different impacts of the factors, it is necessary to simultaneously take into account the influential factors when design the policies of controlling house price.

关 键 词：土地经济 房价 影响程度 JOHANSEN协整检验 GRANGER因果关系检验 珠三角 

分 类 号：F301.3[经济管理—产业经济]