长寿风险、养老金体制与资本积累  

Longevity Risk,Pension System and Capital Accumulation

作　　者：胡仕强[1] 许谨良[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433

出　　处：《财经研究》2011年第8期125-134,共10页Journal of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：文章利用考虑死力连续变化的随机OLG模型,对长寿风险与资本积累之间的关系进行了探讨。在考虑我国统账结合养老金安排的体制背景下,通过重新构建的动态生命表,数值模拟得到的结果与生命周期理论一致,即长寿风险的增加会促进资本积累,而我国现有的养老金体制安排不能促进资本积累。模拟的改革方案显示提高个人账户在统账结合体制中的相对比重会极大地促进资本积累。This paper applies a stochastic OLG model with continuous changes in mortality to study the relationship between longevity risk and capital accumulation. Under the background of pension system combining social pool in China, it achieves numerical simulation results consistent with the life cycle theory by reconstructing the dynamic mortality table, that is to say the increase in longevity risk will be conducive to capital accumulation. Current pension arrangement in China cannot promote capital accumulation, and the simulation of reform projects shows that the increases in the relative weight of individual accounts under the pension system combining social pool will greatly boost capital accumulation.

关 键 词：长寿风险 随机OLG模型 动态生命表 资本积累 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]