模型模拟华北地区气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响  

SIMULATION STUDY ON IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHAGE ON THE PRODUCTION OF WINTER WHEAT IN NORTH CHINA

作　　者：张明伟[1] 邓辉[2] 李贵才[1] 范锦龙[1] 任建强[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家卫星气象中心,北京100081 [2]农业部资源遥感与数字农业重点开放实验室,中国农业科学院,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农业资源与区划》2011年第4期45-49,共5页Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)2008AA10Z217

摘　　要：该文利用IPCC AR4模式资料和基于多年观测资料生成的格点数据,建立降水、最高/最低气温的统计降尺度关系,获取华北地区高分辨率未来气候情景空间分布;利用作物模型模拟IPCC-B1情景下冬小麦生长期和产量变化。结果表明:最高/最低气温模拟结果与观测值比较,相关系数(R2)大于0.70;降水模拟结果与观测值比较,相关系数最小为0.63;IPCC-B1情景下,华北地区冬小麦生长期总体上变短,产量下降。Spatial and temporal mismatches between coarse resolution output of global climate models（GCMs） and fine resolution data requirements of crop models are the major obstacles for assessing the site-specific climatic impacts of climate change on the production of winter wheat.Based on the output of IPCC AR4 model and observation data,statistical downscaling relationship of precipitation,minimum temperature,and maximum temperature in North China was analyzed.With the combination crop model and climate mode,the effects of climate change on the winter wheat production of North China were simulated.Some conclusions from the study might be drawn as follows： Under the IPCC-B1 Scenario,the length of winter wheat growing season in North China would be shortened from 2010 to 2099,and its yield would be decreased.

关 键 词：气候变化 作物模型 冬小麦 华北 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学] S162