消费倾斜动机对我国经常项目顺差的影响分析  

An Analysis of the Impact of Consumption Tilting Motive on the Surplus of Current Accounts in China

作　　者：宋红军[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093 [2]中州大学经贸学院,河南郑州450044

出　　处：《东北大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第4期307-311,317,共6页Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(08AJY004)

摘　　要：居民的消费倾斜动机是引起经常项目余额变动的重要因素,如果一国居民在消费上相对较有耐心,倾向于将收入用于将来消费,则该国的经常项目余额就会增加;反之,如果一国居民在消费上相对缺乏耐心,倾向于提前消费,则该国经常项目余额就会减少。通过对我国经常项目余额与外汇资产净值进行协整分析,发现我国居民主观贴现因子大于世界市场贴现因子,因此我国居民相对较有消费耐心,这种倾向于将来消费的消费倾斜动机是我国经常项目顺差的一个重要原因。The residents＇ consumption tilting motive is one of the most important factors that determine the balance of current accounts.If the residents of a country are comparatively patient in consumption and tend to tilt their income for future consumption,current accounts will increase.Conversely,if the residents are relatively impatient and tend to consume in advance,current accounts will drop.Based on a co-integration analysis of the balance of current accounts and the value of net foreign assets in China,we have found that in our country the subjective discount factor of the residents is larger than the discount factor in the world market,so the Chinese residents are more patient in consumption.It can be concluded that the consumption tilting motive is one of the important factors affecting the current account surplus in China.

关 键 词：消费倾斜动机 经常项目 顺差 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]