巴尔喀什湖流域1936—2005年气温特征  

Temperature characteristics in the Balkhash Lake Basin from 1936 to 2005

作　　者：肖婷婷[1,2] 夏自强[1,2] 郭利丹[1,2] 王志坚[2,3] 胡静奎[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学国际河流研究所,江苏南京210098 [3]河海大学法学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第4期391-396,共6页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：江苏省2009年度普通高校研究生科研创新计划(CX09B-161Z);河海大学优秀博士学位论文培育计划(2010B18714);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2009B29614);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201001052)

摘　　要：根据巴尔喀什湖流域4个代表站1936—2005年的逐日气温资料,应用滑动平均法、气候倾向率法和距平分析法对该流域年均气温进行年际和年代际变化特征分析,运用R/S分析法对年极端气温及其频数的年际变化进行未来趋势的预测.结果表明:该流域年均气温的年际变化呈增加趋势,且气温上升的倾向率从南向北、从东向西逐渐降低;年均气温年代距平值由负变正,变幅逐渐增大.以阿拉木图站为例,其年极端最高、最低气温均呈上升趋势,且未来年极端气温将呈持续上升趋势,未来年极端最低气温上升持续性强.According to the daily temperature data from 1936 to 2005 in four meteorological stations in the Balkhash Lake Basin,the interannual and interdecadal variations of average temperature were analyzed using moving average,climatic inclination rate and distance average analysis methods.and the interannual variations of the annual extreme temperature and its frequency were predicted using the R/S method.The results show that the annual average temperature increases interannually,and inclination rate decreases from south to north and from east to west;the decadal anomaly value of the annual average temperature increases from negative to positive;and the change range increases gradually.Taking the Alma-ata station as an example,its annual extreme maximum and minimum temperatures both increase,their future values will continue increasing,and the annual extreme minimum temperature will continuously increases.

关 键 词：巴尔喀什湖流域 年均气温 年极端气温 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]