山西省粮食作物对气候敏感性的分析  

Climate sensitivity for grain crops in Shanxi

作　　者：刘文平[1] 安炜[1] 王志伟[1] 马雅丽[1] 茅彧 胡亚南[1] 王大勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西省气候中心,太原030006

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2011年第8期13-17,共5页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：山西省气象局气象科技项目(0812)资助

摘　　要：利用1961-2008年平均气温、降水量等气象要素资料和冬小麦、玉米等主要农作物的产量资料为依据,分析并探讨了山西省粮食作物对气候的敏感性及其资源利用状况。结果表明:山西省近年来粮食作物产量基本都呈增加趋势,而气候生产力在近48年中下降了301.2kg/hm2,其分布从北到南增加,年际变化和年代际变化都比较明显;年平均气温、年降水量与气候生产力的关系正相关显著,年平均气温升高1℃,气候生产力约增335kg/hm2;年降水量增加100mm,气候生产力增加1290kg/hm2。年平均气温升高和年降水量增加都会使气候生产力增加,即"暖湿性"气候对其气候生产潜力增加有利。近年来粮食作物敏感指数在上升,玉米敏感指数分布为南低北高、小麦为西低东高;在划分的5个等级的敏感性区域中,小麦和玉米对气候不敏感、较不敏感和敏感这3个区域分布的县市较少,主要反应为正常和较敏感2个等级;目前山西省玉米生产量为其生产潜力的50%左右,中部地区好于北部和南部地区,小麦生产量不足其生产潜力的30%,南部好于中部地区。Annual mean temperature,precipitation and winter wheat,corn crop＇s output data of 1961-2008 were used to analyze and discuss the sensitivity of grain crops of Shanxi to climate and resource utilization.The results indicated the grain crops output in recent years increased,but climate productivity decreased by 301.2 kilogram/hectare in recent 48 years,it increased from north to south.Annual mean temperature and precipitation were positive cor related obviously with climate productivity.The annual mean temperature elevated 1℃,climate productivity increased 335 kilogram/hectare;precipitation increased 100mm,climate productivity increased 1290 kilogram/hectare.The annual mean temperature and precipitation increases will make the climate productivity increase.＂Warm wet＂ climate is advantage to climate productivity.Grain crops sensitive index rose in recent years.Corn sensitive index was lower on south and higher on north,and that of wheat was lower in west and higher in east.At present in Shanxi corn productivity is of about 50% of the productivity potential,middle area is better than north and south area;Wheat productivity is about 30% of its productive potential,south is batter than middle.

关 键 词：作物 气候 敏感 

分 类 号：S162.53[农业科学—农业气象学]