重新审视珠江三角洲海面升降问题  

Reconsideration on the Problems about Sea Level Change in the Pearl River Delta Area

作　　者：李平日[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州地理研究所,广州510070

出　　处：《热带地理》2011年第1期34-38,51,共6页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40071082)

摘　　要：针对近年学界和传媒对全球气候变化和海面升降的关注与争议,特别是对珠江三角洲海平面上升的预估,认为必须严肃对待,重新审视。通过分析广东地下埋藏古树蕴含的古气候信息,认为存在400年左右的冷暖周期;现代进入暖周期,加上工业化温室气体增加而引起全球升温。根据珠江三角洲典型潮位站长期和新近19年的观测记录,对珠江三角洲未来数十年海平面升降提出修正,认为到2030年升幅不会超过20cm。Much attention has been paid to the problems about global climate and sea level changes. Disputes on those subjects exist in academic circles and press media. The author considers that the previous estimation of the sea level rise in the Pearl River Delta area might be too high and should be re-examined. Analysis of the paleoclimatic information contained in a large number of ancient trees buried underground in Guangdong shows that there has been an alternate cold-warm period of about 400 years in the past ten thousand years. At present, another warm period has begun. That is overlapped with the climate warming caused by the increasing emission of greenhouse gases since industrialization of human society. According to the long-term data and those of the last 19 years measured at local tidal stations, the author argues that the range of sea level rise estimated previously for the PRD area should be revised, and suggests that it would be less than 20 cm by 2030.

关 键 词：全球气候变化 海面升降 古树 珠江三角洲海平面上升幅度预估 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]