鄱阳湖流域降水变化及其与太阳黑子的关系  

Relationship between Sunspot Activities and Precipitation Change over the Poyang Lake Basin

作　　者：贾玉芳[1,2] 申洪源[1] 丁召静[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]临沂大学化学与资源环境学院,山东省水土保持与环境保育重点实验室,山东临沂276005 [2]山东师范大学人口·资源与环境学院,济南250014

出　　处：《热带地理》2011年第2期178-181,198,共5页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41072138);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2010DM002)

摘　　要：基于鄱阳湖流域1961―2000年的降水栅格数据和太阳黑子相对数数据,采用滑动平均、一元线性回归、Mann-Kendall检验等方法对鄱阳湖流域1961―2000年降水特征进行了分析;采用小波分析方法探讨鄱阳湖流域降水变化规律与太阳黑子的可能联系。结果表明:1961―2000年鄱阳湖流域降水量呈增加趋势,并在1996年发生突变。通过小波分析发现鄱阳湖流域降水主周期为10 a,与太阳黑子活动周期相同,且两者的小波方差系数达到0.86。在1996年发生突变之前,降水量在太阳黑子活动的上升期比下降期小,鄱阳湖流域降水周期变化与太阳黑子活动有一定联系。Based on the precipitation raster data of the Poyang Lake Basin and relative data of sunspots from 1961-2000,the precipitation characteristics of the Basin was analyzed by moving average method,unary linear regression,and Mann-Kendall test method,etc.The possible links between precipitation change and sunspot activities were discussed with wavelet analysis.The results show that the precipitation of the Poyang Lake Basin was increasing during 1961-2000,and had a sudden change in 1996.The precipitation had a principal cycle of about 10 years,which was in accord with that of sunspot activities,and the correlation coefficient between their wavelet variances was 0.86.Before the sudden change in 1996,the precipitation in the rise period of sunspot was lower than that in the decrease period of sunspot.It is believed that the periodic change of precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin has certain connection with sunspot activity.

关 键 词：鄱阳湖流域 降水变化 太阳黑子 周期 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]