金秀夏季降水量预测的周期叠加预测法  

Periodic Overlapping Prediction Method of Summer Precipitation in Jinxiu County

作　　者：陶炳新 韦勇娟 

机构地区：[1]金秀县气象局,广西金秀545700

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2011年第2期26-28,共3页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

摘　　要：对金秀夏季降水量,由计算自相关R(τ)确定韵律的方法,利用选出最大R(τ)作为周期进行叠加外延预测。经10a实际预测检验,预测与实况同号率达60%,据中国气象局2010年实行的新的短期气候预测评分方法评定,平均达71分。颇有使用参考价值,为提高预测和气象服务水平提供一种快捷方法。Basing the precipitation data of Jinxiu county, with periodic overlapping prediction method, the forecast of last ten years summer rainfall was conducted. The results show that the same sign rate of predicts and the facts is 60%. Based a new scoring method of short-term climate prediction implemented by China Meteorological Administration in 2010, the average score with this forecast method is 70.

关 键 词：夏季降水量 韵律叠加 预测 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]