水资源承载力约束下小城镇经济发展的系统动力学仿真  

System Dynamics Simulation of Small Towns’ Economy under the Constraints of Water Resources’ Carrying Capacity

作　　者：卢超[1] 王蕾娜[2] 张东山[3] 张亚雷[2] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092 [2]同济大学环境科学与工程学院,上海200092 [3]同济大学现代农业科学与工程研究院,上海200092

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第8期1498-1504,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划重点项目:"小城镇饮用水安全技术标准与应急处理工艺研究"(编号:2006BAJ08B10)

摘　　要：水资源承载力是影响缺水小城镇经济发展的重要因素。构建小城镇地区水资源和经济社会耦合研究的系统动力学模型,能够动态分析和预测水资源承载力约束下小城镇经济持续发展的规模、产业结构及人口数量。以我国内陆缺水小城镇——内蒙古自治区太仆寺旗为例的系统动力学仿真和情景分析表明:随着经济规模的扩张和人口的增加,太仆寺旗逐渐由工程型缺水转变为资源型缺水;协调发展模式是太仆寺旗在水资源承载力约束下经济社会持续发展的最优选择。同时,论文从调整农业种植结构、调整工业生产结构和建立公民节水体系三方面提出了太仆寺旗构建节水型经济社会体系的对策,可以为小城镇持续发展提供借鉴。With rapid urbanization and serious water scarcity in China, carrying capacity of water resources has become an important factor affecting economic development of small towns. As the main model to simulate complex giant systems, system dynamics seems to be suitable for long-term, dynamic and macro-quantitative analysis and simulation study. According to the theory of system dynamics, exploring and applying the optimal pattern of economic growth under the constraints of water resources is the key for sustainable development. A complete small towns’ sustainable economic system includes seven sub-systems, i.e., water resources, total economic outputs, population, agriculture, industry, service industry, and ecological environment. Based on the theory dissertated above, first the authors analyzed related factors affecting water resources capacity, involving natural factors （water quantity, water quality, development and utilization levels, the availability of water resources and water self-purification capacity, ecological water requirements, and water conservation, etc） and socio-economic factors （economic scale and industrial structure, technological progress and productivity, population and living standards, market conditions, policies, regulations, psychological factors, and other resource potential, etc）. Moreover, this study established a system dynamics model for coupling research on water resources and economy of small towns using Vensim PLE. As a result, the largest economic scale, the best industrial structure, and the reasonable population amounts of sustainable development can be analyzed dynamically and forecasted. Furthermore, this study selected Taipusi County, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as an example, which is a relative poor and seriously arid small town in middle China. Water resources are the bottleneck restricting the economic and social development of this region. The geographical boundary of this model was the administrative area of Taipusi County. The time period ranged from 200

关 键 词：水资源承载力 小城镇 系统动力学 仿真 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]