基于风险的突发事件应急准备能力评估方法  

Risk-based assessment model for emergency preparedness capability of emergency incidents in China

作　　者：江田汉[1] 邓云峰[1] 李湖生[1] 刘铁民[1] 姜传胜[1] 王建光[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100012

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2011年第7期35-41,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:708330069;0924303;9102431);国家863资助项目(编号:2007AA04Z250)

摘　　要：建立基于风险的突发事件应急准备能力评估指标体系,为应急能力建设提供参考。主要根据《中华人民共和国突发事件应对法》和我国应急管理体系"一案三制"的基本框架,选择反映突发事件应急准备能力的定性与定量指标,并采用简单加权求和方法分别计算其得分;根据四大类突发事件造成的人口死亡和经济损失等方面选择突发事件固有风险指标,并采用秩和比法计算相对风险水平得分;然后集成三类指标得分并作归一化处理得到反映突发事件应急准备能力的标准分。结果表明该评估指标体系能查找应急管理工作中的缺陷与脆弱性,评估方法能识别突发事件应急准备能力与突发事件固有风险降低需求之间的符合程度。该评估指标体系总体结构合理,方法可行。The assessment index system was constructed for emergency incident pr e paredness capability（EIPC） to provide reference for emergency capability buildin g in China.Based on ＂Emergency Response Law of the People＇s Republic of China ＂a nd our emergency management system of＂One Plan Three Systems＂,qualitative an d quantitative indices characterizing EIPC were selected,to which a simple weighte d sum method was applied.And emergency inherent risk indices were selected from fatalities and economic loss in four types of emergency incidents.The risk leve l was calculated with the rank sum ratio method.Then the scores of three types o f indices were integrated and normalized to determine standard mark of EIPC.The results showed that the assessment index system can find main defects and vulnerab ility in the local emergency management.And the method can identify the coincide nce extent between EIPC and inherent risk reduction demand of emergency incident s.The structure of that assessment index system is rational,and the method is ef fective and feasible.

关 键 词：突发事件 应急管理 应急准备 应急能力评估 风险 

分 类 号：X92[环境科学与工程—安全科学]