中国木质林产品出口贸易结构与林业经济增长——基于1981～2009年数据的分析  

Export Structure of China's Wood Forest Products and Forestry Economic Growth——Cointegration Analysis Based on the 1981～2009 Date

作　　者：顾晓燕[1] 聂影[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,南京210093 [2]金陵科技学院商学院,南京211169

出　　处：《经济问题》2011年第8期34-37,共4页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"中国木材资源安全保障体系研究"(10CJY026)

摘　　要：与世界主要木质林产品出口大国（地区）相比,中国劳动密集型木质林产品出口比重过大。基于1981~2009年间数据,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验,分析中国劳动密集型、资源密集型、资本技术密集型木质林产品的出口与林业经济增长的关系,认为我国林业总产值与各类木质林产品的出口之间存在长期的均衡关系,资源密集型木质林产品出口与林业产值存在单向Granger因果关系,劳动密集型和资本技术密集型木质林产品的出口与林业产值之间存在双向Granger因果关系。The export proportion of China＇s labor-intensive wood forest products is too large compared to the world＇s major wood forest products exporting countries（regions）.Based on data for the year 1981-2009,using cointegration analysis and granger causality test,analyzing relationship between the exports of China＇s labor-intensive,resource-intensive,capital-and technology-intensive wood forest products and forestry GDP,we concluded that there＇s a long-term equilibrium relationship between China＇s forestry GDP and export of various types of wood forestry products.There is a unidiretional granger causality between exports of resource-intensive wood forest products and forestry GDP.There is a bidiretional granger causality between exports of labor-intensive and capital-and technology-intensive wood forest products and forestry GDP.

关 键 词：木质林产品 出口贸易结构 林业经济增长 协整分析 

分 类 号：F307.2[经济管理—产业经济]