基于盲数的配电系统可靠性评估  

Power distribution system reliability evaluation based on blind number

作　　者：赵书强[1] 王海巍[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,河北保定071003

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2011年第16期7-12,共6页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2008BAA14B05)

摘　　要：传统的配电系统可靠性评估将可靠性参数作为点值进行评估,但限于客观条件,可靠性参数具有不确定性,必然会导致可靠性评估不准确。通过分析配电网可靠性评估中的各种不确定性因素,研究合理描述和处理不确定性信息的方法。在对已有的处理不确定性问题方法研究的基础上,将盲数理论引入配电网可靠性评估中,利用盲数理论来描述和处理配电网可靠性评估中的不确定性信息,可提高配电系统可靠性评估的准确性。通过算例验证了方法的有效性。Traditional power distribution system reliability evaluation takes the reliable parameter as point value to carry on the evaluation. But limited by the objective conditions, the reliable parameter has uncertainty, which will cause the inaccurate reliability evaluation. Through analyzing the various uncertainty factors in distribution network reliability evaluation, the methods to reasonably describe and process uncertainty information are researched. On the basis of the existing method in processing uncertainty question, this paper introduces blind number theory into distribution network power supply reliability evaluation, uses it to describe and process uncertainty information in distribution network reliability evaluation, and improves the accuracy of distribution system reliability evaluation. Through the example, the validity of the method is confirmed.

关 键 词：配电系统 可靠性评估 不确定性 盲数理论 可信度 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]