逾期债务、风险状况与中国财政安全——兼论中国财政风险预警与控制理论框架的构建  

Arrears,Risk Position and China's Fiscal Safety:A Theoretical Framework of China's Fiscal Risk EarlyWarning and Control

作　　者：郭玉清[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济研究》2011年第8期38-50,共13页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70750002);教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(09YJC790155);南开大学政治经济学研究中心"中国经济发展方式转变的理论与实证研究"课题资助

摘　　要：国内外学术界和公共部门已经进行了大量关于财政风险的理论和实证研究,但现有研究较少从理论视角探讨如何构建与中国经验相容的财政风险预警控制方法,从而保障我国财政运行安全。本文认为,根据中国财政风险的产生机理、传导机制和具体表现形式,以政府违约和逾期债务为基点、根据量化后的风险状况对财政风险进行防范和控制,比通行的预警指数方法更能达到合理反映风险规模的目的。由该理论框架进一步衍生出的财政偿债机制和或有及隐性债务风险的测算方法,又能为遏制地方财政风险层层传导累积、最终导致中央财政因不堪重负而爆发危机的可能性,提供一种新的风险管理与控制思路。There have been many theoretical and empirical studies on fiscal risk among academia and public sectors home and abroad. However few existing studies have explored how to evaluate and control fiscal risk from theoretical perspective compatible with Chinese experiences to ensure fiscal safety. This paper argues that, according to the generation mechanism, manifestation and transmission path of China＇ s fiscal risk, the risk scale can be reflected more reasonably based on liability default, arrear and quantitative risk position than prevailing linear-weighted index method. The fiscal payment mechanism and calculation methods of contingent and implicit liabilities derived from this theoretical framework also provide new ideas of risk management aimed at containment of crisis brought by accumulative risk.

关 键 词：逾期债务 风险状况 财政安全 偿债准备金 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]