吉林省高危人群中艾滋病疫情估计和预测  

Estimation and projection of HIV epidemic among high-risk population in Jilin province

作　　者：郭伟[1] 孟晓军[2] 邱柏红[1] 孟向东[1] 王璐[2] 秦倩倩[2] 丁正伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林省疾病预防控制中心艾滋病科,吉林长春130062 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心流行病学室,北京102206

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（医学版）》2011年第4期754-758,共5页Journal of Jilin University：Medicine Edition

基　　金：吉林省卫生厅科研基金资助课题(2010ZC050)

摘　　要：目的:估计2009年吉林省艾滋病高危人群中艾滋病病毒感染者和艾滋病患者人数,并预测未来几年(2010-2015年)吉林省艾滋病疫情流行趋势,为艾滋病防治工作提供依据。方法:综合吉林省哨点监测、病例报告、专题调查以及文献报道等数据,利用工作簿法、疫情估计和预测软件包、亚洲疫情模型3种模型,对吉林省艾滋病疫情进行估计和预测。结果:截止2009年底,吉林省艾滋病相关高危人群中累积的艾滋病病毒感染者和艾滋病患者数为4 388人,HIV感染率为0.024%,且现存活的感染者中男男性行为者占50%以上。在未来几年(2010-2015年),吉林省艾滋病疫情呈上升趋势,其中男男性接触者人群中艾滋病疫情上升趋势较明显,注射吸毒人群中艾滋病疫情上升趋势趋缓,暗娼和嫖客人群中艾滋病疫情上升趋势较缓慢。结论:2009年吉林省艾滋病疫情仍然处于低流行水平,性传播为主要传播途径,男男性接触者和嫖客是未来艾滋病防治工作的重点人群。Objective To estimate the number of people who lives with HIV and AIDS（PLWHA）in 2009 and the HIV epidemic trend in next six years（2010-2015） in Jilin province and provide evidence for HIV prevention and control.Methods The data from sentinel surveillance,case report,epidemiological survey and scientific lectures were used in Workbook method,Estimation and Projection Package and Asia Epidemic Model to estimate the number of HIV/AIDS and to project the HIV epidemic trend in Jilin province.Results By the end of 2009,it was estimated that among high-risk population the number of cumulative PLWHA was 4 388,the total prevalence of HIV was 0.024% in Jilin province and over 50% of PLWHA were men who had sex with men.HIV epidemic trend will be rising from 2010 to 2015 in Jilin province,where the trend among MSM will go upward markedly,the rising trend among IDU will be slowed down and the rising trend among FSW and their clients will be relatively slow.Conclusion The HIV epidemic in Jilin province was still at a lower level in 2009 and the sexual transmission was the main transmission way.MSM and clients of FSW are the focus population who must be given more attention in the future.

关 键 词：艾滋病 疫情 估计和预测 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]