海峡两岸经济周期协动性的现状与趋势  

Study on the Co-movement of Business Cycles of Both Sides across the Taiwan Strait

作　　者：王华[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学台湾研究院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2011年第8期33-39,共7页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(09BJL057)

摘　　要：利用中国大陆和台湾地区GDP增长率反映海峡两岸的经济周期波动,针对二者的相关分析表明,1990年以来,海峡两岸经济周期已经呈现一定程度的协动性特征,并且这种协动性具有不断增强的趋势。在经济周期协动性的传导机制方面,直观判断,两岸贸易往来与台商对大陆投资是经济周期波动的重要传导渠道,但世界市场经济景气波动的冲击影响也不容忽视。由于受两岸经济规模和结构的差异、两岸经贸交流的不对称性、大陆对外开放程度较低、以及经济运行规律之外政治干扰和政策限制等因素的影响,两岸经济周期协动性还未完全呈现其应有规模。The paper has measured the correlation between business cycles of both sides across the Taiwan Strait, which is denoted with the GDP Growth rates of China's Mainland and Taiwan district. It concludes that the increasingly visible co-movement of business cycles of both sides across the Taiwan Strait has been discovered since 1990＇s. As for the transmission mechanism of business cycles＇ co-movement, Taiwan investment in China's Mainland and trade across the Taiwan Strait are the main transmission channels, and the economic fluctuation from the world market also has a notable impact. At the same time, there are some factors, such as the difference in the economic size and structure of both sides, the asymmetry of economic intercourse, the lowness of openness extent in China's Mainland, and political disturbance, which have had some restrictive effects on the co-movement of business cycles of both sides across the Taiwan Strait.

关 键 词：海峡两岸 经济周期 协动性 传导机制 

分 类 号：F014.8[经济管理—政治经济学]