大型客运站最高聚集人数仿真计算方法研究  

Research on Calculation Method of the Maximum Number of Gathering Passengers in Large Stations

作　　者：刘启钢[1] 朱克非[1] 杜旭升[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国铁道科学研究院运输及经济研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《铁道学报》2011年第8期1-6,共6页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：铁道部科技研究开发计划(2008X17)

摘　　要：铁路客运站最高聚集人数传统计算方法采用静态公式计算,忽略了车站功能布局、客流组织方案与最高聚集人数的互动影响。在研究旅客最高聚集人数形成机理的基础上,提出并证明3个规律,揭示最高聚集人数影响因素的作用规律、最高聚集人数的周期特性和出现时间;通过对15万条现场统计数据的拟合分析,提出旅客提前到站时间分布密度函数;运用车站客流组织仿真系统,研究提出车站最高聚集人数的仿真计算方法,并采用北京南站数据进行验算。结果表明,该方法可为车站方案设计、运营管理方案编制提供参考。As the traditional method,the static formula is used to calculate the maximum number of gathering passengers in railway stations,which neglects the interactions between the maximum nember of gathering passengers and the layout of station and passenger flow organization plan.On the basis of researching the forming mechanism of the maximum number of gathering passengers,the paper reveals three principles： The rules of factors in affecting the maximum number of gathering passengers,and the periodicity and appearing time of the maximum number of gathering passengers.Through fitting analysis on the 150,000 notes of in-situ statistical data,the paper puts forward the distribution density function of the passenger advanced arrival time.In addition,by using the simulation system of station passenger flow organization,the paper comes up with the simulating calculation method of the maximum number of gathering passengers,and makes verification with data from the of Beijing South Station.The results show that the proposed catalation method may provide reference for design of station scheme and establishment of station operation and management plan.

关 键 词：大型客运站 最高聚集人数 旅客到达分布 客流组织仿真系统 

分 类 号：U293.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]