利用MAXENT预测橡胶树棒孢霉落叶病在中国的适生区  

Prediction of potential geographic distribution of Corynespora leaf fall disease in China using MAXENT

作　　者：曲伟伟[1] 李志红[1] 黄贵修[2] 林春花[2] 倪文龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院,北京100193 [2]海南省热带农业有害生物检测监控重点实验室,中国热带农业科学院环境与植物保护研究所,儋州571737

出　　处：《植物保护》2011年第4期52-57,共6页Plant Protection

基　　金：农业部热带农林有害生物入侵监测与控制重点开放实验室开放课题基金项目(MACKL0907)

摘　　要：[目的]对引起橡胶树棒孢霉落叶病的橡胶树棒孢霉落叶病菌在我国的适生区进行分析,为相关部门制定相应的防控对策,及进一步进行风险评估和监测区域的确定提供依据。[方法]利用MAXENT与ArcGIS,结合橡胶树在中国的分布预测该病在中国的适生区。[结果]预测结果显示,该病在我国的橡胶园几乎均可适生且适生程度较高,适生区内监测及预警对橡胶产业持续健康发展具有重要意义。预测结果的AUC值为0.978,预测效果较好。[结论]研究结果可为该病害防控策略的制定提供科学依据。[Objective] The potential geographic distribution of Corynespora cassiicola （Berk.＆ Curt.） Wei, which caused Corynespora leaf fall disease, was analyzed to provide the basis for control and monitoring of the disease. [Method] The potential geographic distribution of the disease was analyzed based on the distribution of Hevea brasiliensis in China using MAXENT and ArcGIS. [Result] The results showed that the disease had a high suitability in most rubber plantations in China. Monitoring and early warning were of great significance to the sustainable and healthy development of rubber industry in the suitable areas. The AUC value of the results reached 0.978, indicating that the predicted results were good. [Conclusion] This study would provide scientific proofs for making the policies on prevention and control of the disease.

关 键 词：橡胶树棒孢霉落叶病 适生性分析 MAXENT ARCGIS 

分 类 号：S435.76[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]