基于构成要素的预报方法——配料法  

Ingredients Based Forecasting Methodology

作　　者：俞小鼎[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局培训中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2011年第8期913-918,共6页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：中国气象局国家级强对流团队项目;国家自然科学基金面上项目(40875029);财政部气象行业专项(GYHY200906003)共同资助

摘　　要：文章概要介绍了1996年由Doswell等人提出的"基于构成要素的预报方法",即所谓"配料法"的主要思路。通过与常用的传统预报方法"流型辨识方法"进行比较来说明"配料法"的优势和局限性,并利用实际雷暴生成的例子演示配料法的应用;强调"配料法"和"流型辨识方法"之间有很强的互补性;同时对有关"配料法"的一些误解进行了澄清。＂Ingredients based forecasting methodology＂,which was proposed by Doswell et al.in 1996,is briefly presented.By comparing with traditional ＂pattern recognition＂ method,the strength and weakness of the ＂ingredients based forecasting methodology＂ are described.With real thunderstorm initiation case, the application of ＂ingredients based forecasting methodology＂ is illustrated.It is emphasized that ＂ingredients based forecasting methodology＂ and traditional ＂pattern recognition＂ forecasting method complement each other.Some misunderstandings on the ＂ingredients based forecasting methodology＂ are clarified.

关 键 词：配料法 预报方法 流型辨识方法 举例说明 互补性 误解澄清 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]