基于河北区域天气分型的多模式降水检验评估  

The NWP Models' Evaluation Based on Different Weather Type in Hebei

作　　者：张国华[1,2] 张江涛 张南[1,2] 郝雪明 李智峰 郑艳萍[4] 

机构地区：[1]河北省气象台,石家庄050021 [2]河北省生态环境监测实验室,石家庄050021 [3]河北省临城县气象局,临城054300 [4]河北省唐山市气象局,唐山063000

出　　处：《气象》2011年第8期968-976,共9页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：河北省气象局科研开发重点项目(08KY01)

摘　　要：用常规天气图、雨情资料和中国气象局T213模式、T639模式、河北省MM5模式、日本气象厅JMA模式和德国气象局DWD模式的降水预报资料。将5种数值模式的降水要素预报,插值到河北省的142个站点上做TS评分。对2009年7月至2010年6月的多模式降水预报进行了分天气型的检验。结果表明,TS评分与模式和区域关系密切,降雨系统(如切变型、副高型、槽型)对应着较高的预报正确率,切变型、副高型对大雨和暴雨的预报正确率较高。对5种模式的综合评价是,对小雨和中雨的预报,DWD、T639、JMA模式好于其他模式,对大雨和暴雨的预报,T639、MM5、T213模式好于其他模式。Using conventional weather charts,rainfall observations and precipitation forecasts made by T213 and T639（China）,MM5（Hebei）,JMA（Japan） and DWD（Germany） numerical models,the TS （threat scores） has been done by interpolating the five models＇ precipitation forecasts into the 142 observation stations of Hebei.It is verified by the mutil-model precipitation forecasts for different synoptic types from July 2009 to June 2010.The results indicate that,TS is closely related with numerical model and area,that the higher score corresponds some precipitation systems,such as shear type,subtropical high type and trough type,and that the accuracy of heavy and torrential rain under the first two type weather systems is higher than other types.The comprehensive evaluation of five models＇ precipitation prediction, is that（1） the effects of DWD,T639 and JMA models are better than other models for light and moderate rainfall conditions;and（2） the effects of T639,MM5 and T213 models are better than other models for the heavy and torrential rainfall conditions.

关 键 词：天气分型 模式 降水 检验 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]