中国2020年SO_2排放量控制在2070万t以下的可行性分析  

Feasibility analysis of keeping sulfur dioxide emission under 20.7 millions tons in China

作　　者：韩国刚[1] 刘晓宇[2] 刘殊[3] 杜蕴慧[1] 张宇[1] 韩振宇[4] 曲富国[5] 陈忱[1] 

机构地区：[1]环境保护部环境工程评估中心,北京100012 [2]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012 [3]交通部公路科学研究所,北京100088 [4]北京博奇电力公司,北京100022 [5]吉林大学东北亚研究院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《电力科技与环保》2011年第4期15-20,共6页Electric Power Technology and Environmental Protection

摘　　要：根据SO2减排控制指标体系中16个指标的概况和变化趋势,对中国2020年SO2排放量做了系统地分析和预测,得到了三组预测图像。中国SO2排放量与国民生产总值(GDP)及其年均增长率、总能耗量及其年均增长率、能源经济环境发展模式(能源消费弹性系数)等12项指标成正相关,与SO2治理强度等4项指标成负相关,当各个指标控制在合理的范围内时我国2020年SO2减排目标是可以实现的。提出了2020年实现SO2减排目标的10个约束条件,如果不满足约束条件时,我国2020年SO2削减目标是不能实现的。The prediction of the sulfur dioxide emission in China according to the current situation of the 16 affecting factors of decrease the sulfur dioxide emission is analyzed and get three group of prediction images.As a conclusion,the sulfur dioxide emission is directly proportional to the GDP,annual growth rate of GDP,total energy consumption or total coal consumption,annual growth rate of total energy consumption or total coal consumption,developing mode of economic energy environment（elasticity ratio of energy resume）,and in reverse proportion to four affecting factors such as the strength of sulfur dioxide emission controlling.When every factor is rational,the target of decrease the sulfur dioxide emission in 2020 can be realized.Ten countermeasures to realize the sulfur dioxide reduction target are put forward.If the restraint conditions do not be satisfied,the sulfur dioxide reduction target in 2020 year cannot be realized.

关 键 词：SO2减排指标 能源与环境 SO2宏观控制 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]