“一主二辅”的预报思路  

Prediction Ideas of "Relying Mainly on Seismicity While Making Abnormal Precursory Phenomena Subsidiary

作　　者：李宣瑚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局,北京100036

出　　处：《国际地震动态》1999年第12期12-14,共3页Recent Developments in World Seismology

摘　　要：通过海城地震以来我国地震预报成功的三种类型实例的研究和基于前兆现象复杂性的分析， 提出了现阶段中期—短临预报可采用 “一主二辅”的预报思路， 即以地震活动为主， 前兆异常现象为辅的预报途径。Through the studies on three kinds of examples of Chinese successful predictions since the Haicheng earthquake,and based on analysis of the complication of precursory phenomena,this paper puts forward that prediction ideas of“the dominant factors and the subsidiary factors” for medium term short impending earthquake predictions can be adopted at present,that is the prediction ways of relying mainly on seismicity while making abnormal precursory phenomena subsidiary.

关 键 词：地震预报 预报思路 地震前兆 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]