利用全球环流模式进行我国汛期短期气候预测的试验  

THE EXPERIMENT OF EXTRASEASONAL PREDICTION DURING THE RAINY SEASON IN CHINA BY OSU/NCC GCM

作　　者：高学杰[1] 赵宗慈[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》1999年第4期462-469,共8页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家气候中心业务基金

摘　　要：利用ＯＳＵ／ＮＣＣ全球大气环流模式耦合全球混合层海洋与海冰模式，采用集合预报的方法，对中国汛期降水进行了１９８２～１９９５ 年共１４ 年的跨季度综合性回报检验研究．结果表明，该模式对我国汛期降水具有一定的跨季度预报能力，对部分地区（江淮至华东沿海、东北部分地区等）有较强的预报能力．By using the ensemble prediction method, the experiment for extraseasonal prediction of precipitation during the rainy season in China from 1982 to 1995 was made by GCM/mixed layer ocean and sea ice model (OSU/NCC).The results show that the model has certain ability in the prediction of precipitation during the rainy season in China. It is also indicated that the prediction is especially acceptable in some areas.

关 键 词：耦合模式 集合预报 环流模式 汛期 短期气候预测 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]