滑坡预测的方法学进展  

ADVANCES OF SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGY IN LANDSLIDE PROGNOSIS

作　　者：周萃英[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学地球科学系,广州510275

出　　处：《地质科技情报》1999年第4期89-92,共4页Geological Science and Technology Information

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金!(950067;970127);国家自然科学基金!(59779019)

摘　　要：对滑坡预测方法及其近年来的主要进展进行了系统分析,特别是对非线性理论的特点及其在滑坡预测中的作用和意义进行了阐述。并且,基于对地质体复杂性的认识,强调了人类专家经验知识的重要性,指出定性、定量综合集成的方法,如专家系统预测方法等是特别值得关注的,并提出了若干新的思考与展望。s The paper has systematically summarized the advance of scientific prognostic methods,especially the nonlinear dynamic methods such as chaotic dynamics,synergetics as well as fractal methods,and their application in landslide prediction.At the same time,it points out that more attention should be paid to the combined methods by quantitative methods and qualitative ones based on the complexity features of geological body.At last,it prospects the key points of landslide prognosis and the development trend in the future.

关 键 词：滑坡 预测方法 非线性动力学 专家系统 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]