收入增长、分配公平与贫困减少  

Income Growth,Inequality and Poverty Reduction:Empirical Analysis from CHNS Data

作　　者：许启发[1] 蒋翠侠[2] 刘玉荣 

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院统计学院 [2]山东工商学院数学与信息科学学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2011年第7期27-36,共10页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70901048;71071087);高等学校全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目(200982);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目(08JC790062)的资助

摘　　要：本文利用CHNS调查数据,分两个阶段:1990-1999、1999-2005,依据收入分布函数定量讨论了收入增长、分配公平与贫困减少三者之间的关系。均值回归与O-B分解结果显示:收入决定机制是影响人均收入增长的主导因素,然而需要关注在1999-2005年间教育的系数效应为负。分位数回归与M-M分解显示:两个阶段,收入决定机制是导致居民收入分布向右偏移的主要原因;第一阶段的居民收入差距扩大主要源于劳动力特征的变化,第二阶段的居民收入差距扩大难以解释。Shapley分解结果显示:收入增长能显著减少贫困,而收入差距扩大会累及减贫效果;在两个不同阶段,贫困减少的增长效应贡献始终最大,而分配效应与贫困线变动效应贡献顺序发生了交替变化。Based on income distribution function, this paper discusses the relationship among income growth, inequality and poverty using CHNS （China Health and Nutrition Survey） data from 1990 to 2005. The sample is divided into two parts, i.e. 1990-1999 and 1999-2005. The results of mean regression and O-B decomposition show that revenue decision mechanism is the dominant factor of income increase. Through quantile regression and M-M decomposition, we find that revenue decision mechanism is a main reason to force income distribution curve towards the right. In the first stage, the expansion of income gap is mainly due to the changes in labor force characteristics. However, the reason is not clear in the next stage. Finally, we apply the Shapley decomposition to the poverty analysis, and find that revenue growth can lead to a significant reduce poverty and income gap can intensify the poverty. In the two stages, growth effects always make the greatest contribution. But, the sequence of allocation effects and poverty line changing effects is alternated in the different stages.

关 键 词：贫困 不平等 分位数回归 反事实分解 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]