婚配概率及婚配对数估计方法的探讨  

Focus on the Estimation of Marriage Probability and Marriage Number

作　　者：李芬[1] 尹文耀[2] 姚引妹[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学政策仿真实验室 [2]浙江大学人口号发展研究所 [3]浙江大学人口与发展研究所

出　　处：《统计研究》2011年第7期92-97,共6页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"我国分省人口发展模拟与生育政策比较选择"(2008BRK00)阶段性成果

摘　　要：估算独生子女和非独生子女之间婚配概率及婚配对数是生育政策仿真的关键技术之一。本文首次提出同龄概率法及多龄概率法,并对全国层面独生子女之间、独生子女与非独生子女之间、非独生子女之间的婚配概率及婚配对数进行了估算,详细阐述了两种方法的原理及运算步骤,并对两种方法的运算结果进行分析比较。结果表明,这两种方法都可以计算独生子女和非独生子女之间多种婚配概率,并能估算出各类婚配夫妇对数。其中,同龄概率法较直观,数据易取得,但与实际存在一定的偏差;多龄概率法更接近于现实,受婚配对象人数突变的影响更小。One key technique of birth policy simulation is to estimate marriage probability and marriage number between different policy subjects. We estimate marriage probability and marriage number among only-child and non-onlychild by the method of the ＂same-age＂ marriage probability and the ＂multi-age＂ marriage probability on this paper. The principle and results of two methods are described and compared. The results show that marriage probability between different policy subjects can be drawn, and marriage number between different policy subjects can be simulated by means of both methods. The method of the ＂same-age＂ marriage probability has advantage of straightforwardness and easy access to data, but may result in deviation from reality. The method of the ＂multi-age＂ marriage probability is closer to reality and less affected by the accidental change of marriage number.

关 键 词：同龄婚配概率 多龄婚配概率 生育政策 政策仿真 

分 类 号：C81[社会学—统计学]