中国生猪价格发现形成机制研究——基于区域间价格关系的实证分析  

Study on China's Swine Price Discovery Forming Mechanism ——Empirical Analysis on the Relationship Between Interregional Price

作　　者：陈永福[1] 马国英[1] 吴蓓蓓[1] 钱小平 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,中国北京100083 [2]日本国际农林水产业中心

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2011年第15期3279-3288,共10页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BADA9B04)

摘　　要：【目的】揭示生猪价格波动的形成机制。【方法】运用持续-短暂(P-T)模型和信息份额(IS)模型测算生猪主产区间生猪价格的共因子、持续-短暂因素的分解及其在生猪市场所占市场份额。【结果】四川、湖南和河南生猪价格对长期生猪价格形成有显著作用;四川和湖南生猪价格的上升对共因子有负向作用,而河南生猪价格的上升则对共因子有正向作用;各主要生产地区生猪价格的持续性因素比重总体呈上升态势,四川和河南生猪价格形成中短暂性因素比重相对较高;四川和河南生猪价格所占市场信息份额相对较高。【结论】确保湖南、四川生猪价格稳定作为重点关注对象;尽可能减少河南生猪价格剧烈波动的影响,从而降低生猪价格共因子的变动幅度;关注疫情和下游需求(猪肉需求)等因子引起的四川和河南生猪价格中短暂性因素部分的变动态势,尽可能减少具有扰乱作用的负效应。[Objective] The objective of this study is to provide the transmission mechanism of swine price. [Method] The common factors and information shares in major swine producing areas were measured by the permanent-transitory model and information share model based on the swine prices in these areas under the rising price volatility in China＇s swine market. [Result] The empirical results show that the swine prices in the three provinces of Sichuan, Hunan and Henan have an significant effect on China＇s swine price formation and the rising swine price in Sichuan and Hunan plays a negative role in common factors, while in Henan has a positive effect. The permanent factor＇s proportion of swine price in different provinces continues to show an upward trend generally, and the transitory factor＇s proportion of swine price in Sichuan and Henan provinces is relatively high, as well as the swine price has a relatively high information share in market. [ Conclusion] More attention should be paid to the stability of swine prices in Sichuan and Hunan. The flucluation of swine price in Henan should be minimized so as to reduce the magnitude of change in common factors. The epidemic and the downstream demand （pork demand） and other factors, which caused the change of the transitory factor＇s proportion of swine price in Sichuan and Henan should be concerned so as to minimize the negative effects of disruption as far as possible.

关 键 词：生猪价格 持续-短暂(P-T)模型 信息份额(IS)模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]