国际收支失衡下的中国货币政策——基于结构型VAR的经验研究  

China's Monetary Policy under Payment Imbalance: A Structural VAR Approach

作　　者：余婧[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2011年第8期21-26,87,共6页World Economy Studies

摘　　要：本文采用结构型VAR模型,旨在揭示中国国际收支失衡下货币政策的反应及其对于宏观经济波动的影响。我们发现:(1)针对经常项目和资本项目盈余,央行分别采取扩张性和紧缩性政策;(2)紧缩性货币政策会增加经常项目盈余,但对资本流动的影响很小;(3)净出口和净资本流入的正向冲击分别导致CPI的下降和上升。除净出口冲击降低CPI并伴随扩张性货币政策外,其他发现都符合理论判断,说明了央行针对国际收支失衡实施的货币政策的合理性。This paper uses structural VAR models to reveal the transmission mechanism of payment balance shocks and monetary policy responses,as well as their impacts on macroeconomic fluctuations in China.It find that:(1) the central bank adopts expansionary(contractionary) monetary policy when current(capital) account surplus occurs,(2) contractionary monetary policy increases current account surplus but has little effect on capital flows,(3) a positive net export(capital flow) shock decreases(increases) CPI.Most of the above findings are in line with the theoretical predictions,suggesting the effectiveness of China's monetary policy under payment imbalance.

关 键 词：国际收支 货币政策 结构型VAR 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]