利率政策、金融结构与资本跨国流动——基于拓展的利率平价模型  

Theoretical Study on Interest Rate Policy,Financial Structure and Capital Multinational Flow——Based on an Extended Model of Interest Rate Parity Theory

作　　者：杨海波[1] 杨海军[1] 陈时兴 

机构地区：[1]南昌航空大学,江西南昌330063 [2]浙江省委党校,浙江杭州310012

出　　处：《广东金融学院学报》2011年第4期3-14,共12页Journal of Guangdong University of Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70962008);教育部社科课题(08JC630037);国家社会科学基金资助项目(11BJ069)

摘　　要：利率政策和金融结构对资本跨国流动的影响力较强。在引入交易成本变量和放松风险中性假定的前提下,利用拓展的利率平价模型分析利率政策和金融结构对资本跨国流动及汇率波动造成的影响进行分析,结果得出,中国利率政策的顺周期性、粘性和单向惯性特征尽管不会导致资本跨国流动的边界发生位移,但是会使汇率的不稳定性加剧,并且持续的时间延长;中国现有金融结构的金融交易效率低和交易风险大的特征会导致资本净流入量减少,因此汇率面临着持续的、较大的贬值压力。The interest rate policy and financial structure had comparatively strong influence on the multinational capital flow.On the assumption that the premise introduced the transaction cost variable and the relaxation of risk neutral,this paper analyzed the influence of the interest rate policy and financial structure on the capital multinational flow and the exchange rate fluctuation by using the expand interest rate parity model.We found that the interest rate policy adopted by China had made the interest rate fluctuate with three characteristics：veer periodicity,stickiness and single-direction inertia.Therefore the inefficiency of transactions and high risk became the basic features of our nation＇s financial structure,which might lead to less capital inflows,and the exchange rate would face the continued and depreciated pressure.

关 键 词：利率政策 金融结构 资本跨国流动 汇率 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]