城市安全规划之动态疏散与车辆配置策略  

DYNAMIC EVACUATION AND VEHICLE ALLOCATION STRATEGY IN URBAN SAFETY PLANNING

作　　者：叶永[1] 刘南[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学管理学院 [2]浙江大学管理学院管理科学与工程系

出　　处：《城市规划》2011年第8期20-26,共7页City Planning Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“基于组群信息刷新的非常规突发事件资源配置优化决策研究”(90924023/G0104)

摘　　要：在城市安全规划中,人群紧急疏散是其重要内容。在紧急救援的有限时间内,最大化利用应急资源,疏散出最多灾民,是城市人群紧急疏散的第一准则。本文在探讨动态紧急疏散模式的基础上,应用最优化方法,以疏散出人数最多为目标函数,考虑时间因素和多种疏散方式,建立"多对多"动态人群紧急疏散与车辆配置决策模型,并用多维动态规划逆序解法对其进行求解,以获取城市人群紧急疏散与车辆配置的最优策略,拟缓解城市紧急疏散中时间和资源与应急行为的两大矛盾。最后,数值仿真与模拟仿真结果表明:模型和求解方法是有效的。Emergency evacuation plays an important role in urban safety planning.In urban accident rescue,it is very important to evacuate as many people as possible to safe areas in limited time with limited relief resources.In order to find an optimal strategy for the urban emergency evacuation and vehicle allocation,an urban dynamic emergency evacuation mode is studied.This paper establishes a model for urban dynamic emergency evacuation and vehicle allocation considering the time constraint,which is aimed to maximize the number of evacuated people.Then,the model is solved by the multidimensional dynamic planning method.Finally,the simulation results show that the model and solution strategy are efficient and effective.

关 键 词：城市安全 非常规突发事件 车辆配置 人群疏散 紧急决策 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]