基于统计分辨模型的害虫种群动态预报研究  

Forecasting of Population Dynamics of Pest Based on Statistic Discriminatory Model

作　　者：陈健 

机构地区：[1]山东省临沂市兰山区义堂农技站,山东临沂276013

出　　处：《现代农业科技》2011年第15期182-182,184,共2页Modern Agricultural Science and Technology

摘　　要：应用统计分辨原理,对临沂市1995—2007年棉花苗期棉蚜的系统观测资料进行了数量分析,建立了统计分辨数学模型,经对历史资料的回报验证,其总拟合率92.31%,将2008年观测数据作为独立样本进行试报,其预报结果与实际一致。According to of two-level discriminatory principle,the data about the occurrence amount of Aphis gossypii Glover in cotton seeding stage from 1995 to 2007 in Linyi City was analyzed,and then statistic discriminatory model was built.Using historic data for validation,the total fitting rate reached 92.32%.Using the observation data of 2008 as independent sample for test forecasting,the result matched with the real data.

关 键 词：统计分辨模型 棉蚜 种群动态 预测预报 

分 类 号：S431.9[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]