现役近海老龄平台延寿决策模型  

Life Extension Decision-making Model for Ageing Offshore Platforms

作　　者：杨冬平[1,2] 牛更奇[1] 支景波[1] 刘灵灵[1] 彭星来[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石化胜利油田检测评价研究有限公司,山东东营257062 [2]中国石油大学海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心,山东东营257061

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2011年第5期97-103,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金资助(Y2006F65)

摘　　要：为合理预测老龄平台的动态经济寿命,降低复杂不确定服役环境对平台的运营风险,建立老龄平台延寿决策综合模糊评判模型的结构流程。从影响平台服役状态的工程因素、结构因素、荷载因素和风险因素4个维度进行分析和调整,构建阶层结构;采用模糊理论建立正倒值矩阵,综合专家意见计算各因素权重;引入凹陷因子、裂纹因子、腐蚀因子以及冰荷载因子对影响因素进行合理量化,建立海洋石油老龄平台延寿决策评分准则;采用逻辑运算计算综合评分,建立老龄平台延寿决策参考表,进而依据该表确定平台延寿基准期;利用决策模型对2座海洋平台进行延寿决策,并将其结果与传统评判结果进行对比分析。结果表明,采用本模型能够更加精确地描述平台的动态经济寿命,为复杂不确定环境的老龄平台延寿决策提供一种新的计算思路。In order to make reasonable prediction of dynamic economic life in ageing offshore platforms and reduce their operational risk under complicated and uncertain environment,structural process of life extension decision-making model in ageing offshore platforms based on comprehensive fuzzy evaluation was established.Hierarchical structures were set up by analyzing and adjusting four dimensions-engineering factors,structural factors,load factors and risk factors which affect the platform service state.The weight of every factor was computed based on experts＇ viewpoints and positive reciprocal matrix was established by adopting fuzzy theory.Impacting factors were quantified reasonably by introducing depression factor,crack factor,corrosion factor,as well as the ice load factor,and then the evaluation criteria of life extension decision-making model in ageing offshore platforms in China＇s Chengbei Oilfield were constituted.The comprehensive score was computed by iterative logical arithmetic.Furthermore,life extension decision-making reference table was established and the reference period of life extension in offshore platform was determined according to this table.Life extension decisions for two platforms were made by using decision-making model and their results were compared with the traditional evaluations.Research results show that this model can describe the dynamic economic life of offshore platforms more accurately and offer a new thought for the research of life extension decisions in ageing offshore platforms under complicated and uncertain environment.

关 键 词：老龄平台 延寿决策 不确定环境 模糊评判 层次分级 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]