苯暴露的致癌风险评价  

Study on Carcinogenic Risk Evaluation of Benzene-exposed Workers

作　　者：张倩[1,2] 刘茂[1] 黄德寅[2] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071 [2]天津渤海化工集团公司劳动卫生研究所,天津300051

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2011年第5期143-147,共5页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：天津市自然科学基金资助(10JCYBJC13400)

摘　　要：为建立苯暴露风险的定量研究方法,利用生理药代动力学(PBPK)模型与剂量—反应关系,进行苯暴露的致癌风险评价。采用美国环保署推荐的PBPK模型模拟软件,计算苯经吸收转化后进入人体的数据。将模拟得到的内剂量代入致癌风险计算公式中,得到苯暴露的致癌风险,并利用蒙特卡洛模拟方法确定风险概率分布,进行不确定性分析。最后将此健康风险评价方法应用于天津某大型石油化工企业,分析工人苯暴露下的致癌风险。结果表明,工人苯暴露的致癌风险明显超过了最大可接受风险值1×10-4,需要采取相关措施降低风险。In order to provide a quantitative risk evaluation for benzene-exposed workers,quantitative method using PBPK model and dose-response model was applied to the carcinogenic risk evaluation for benzene-exposed workers.First,the internal dose of inhaled-benzene in human beings was simulated by exposure related dose estimating model recommended by USEPA.Then,the internal dose was substituted into calculating formula of carcinogenic risk.In order to determine the uncertainty of the cancer risk,Monte-Carlo simulation（Crystal Ball） was used to analyze the risk probability distribution.Finally,a large petrochemical enterprise in Tianjin was selected as the case study and carcinogenic risk evaluation for benzene-exposed workers was calculated.The results show the benzene-exposed cancer risk obviously exceeds the maximum acceptable risk level1×10-4,which suggest that it is necessary to take relevant measures to reduce risk.

关 键 词：致癌风险 苯 生理药代动力学(PBPK)模型 暴露相关剂量估算模型(ERDEM) 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：X965[环境科学与工程—安全科学]