当前国内外油气行业发展态势与前景展望  

Oil and gas industry development trends

作　　者：许永发[1] 钱兴坤[1] 戴家权[1] 郭一凡[1] 陈建荣[1] 陈蕊[1] 段兆芳[1] 殷冬青[1] 吴谋远[1] 张卫忠[1] 苏穗燕[1] 杜伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2011年第7期1-10,109,共10页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：当前,世界经济增长趋缓,但复苏大势不变;我国宏观经济增速放缓,但硬着陆的可能性较小。我国油气产业、财税、价格等政策环境发生较大变化,对国内炼化行业格局、油气企业发展、海外油气资源利用、油气价格市场化改革均将产生一定影响。世界石油供需处于紧平衡,预计2011年下半年国际油价仍将高位盘整。世界天然气供需"拐点"可能提前到来,天然气价格逐步走高。油气地缘政治形势复杂多变,资源争夺日益激烈,多数资源国对外合作政策持续收紧。由于市场环境变化,2011年油气并购市场活跃程度明显下降。国际大石油公司坚持资源为王理念,优化资产结构,加强风险管控,寻求与国家石油公司建立新型战略合作伙伴关系。展望未来五年,随着世界能源结构向绿色转型,低碳能源占比将提高,石油在能源结构中的比重进一步下降;世界石油供应持续偏紧,炼油能力更加过剩,国际油价将进入100美元/桶时代;世界天然气供需处于平衡略紧态势,天然气价格将稳步上升。While world economic growth is slowing down, recovery prospects remain unchanged.Although the speed of domestic macroeconomic development is slowing,there's little possibility of a hard landing.Major changes in the policy environment,regarding finance, taxation,pricing and so on,will have a big impact on the domestic refining landscape,oil and gas enterprise development,overseas oil and gas resource utilization and market-oriented reform of oil and gas pricing. World oil supply/demand balance remains tight and the international oil price is expected to stay high.A turning point in world natural gas supply compared to demand may be reached sooner than expected;so natural gas prices would gradually climb to a high level.Considering the complexity and unpredictability of the geopolitics of oil and gas,as well as the increasingly fierce competition for resources,most countries rich in resources would be expected to tighten up on international cooperation. Given the change in the market environment,the market for oil and gas M&A has obviously been less active in 2011 than before.With resources as their top concern, major international oil companies are strengthening their balance sheets and risk management,and seeking new strategic partnerships with national oil companies.As the world energy industry reconfigures along greener lines in the next five years,low-carbon energy will increase its share at the expense of oil.World oil supply will nevertheless remain tight,with oil refining increasing overcapacity and the oil price entering an era of$100/b. A relatively tight natural gas supply/demand balance willlead to steady growth in the price of natural gas.

关 键 词：宏观经济 产业政策 油气供需 价格走势 地缘政治 国际化经营 趋势分析 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F426.22