基于混沌理论的高速公路网短时交通流量预测研究  

Research on Short-term Traffic Flow Forecast of Highway Network Based on Chaos Theory

作　　者：张培林[1] 赵弘尧[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《公路工程》2011年第4期179-182,共4页Highway Engineering

摘　　要：随着高速公路网的建成及其交通流量的不断增大,对高速路网交通流实时控制和诱导服务的需求日益突出,而高速公路网短时交通流量的预测,不仅是交通流实时控制和诱导服务的基础和依据,而且预测结果的准确性对改善高速公路网的通行能力和服务水平有重要影响。基于混沌时间序列分析和预测的理论,建立了高速公路网短时交通流预测模型,计算给定区域高速公路网多断面短时交通流量预测值,结果表明利用多维混沌时间序列法预测高速公路网短时交通流量可行且具有较高的精度。With the construction of the highway network and the growing traffic flows,demand for real-time control and guiding service have become increasingly prominent.As for short-term forecast of highway network,it is not only the basis and foundation of the real-time control and guiding service for traffic flows,and the precise forecast result will have a magnificent impact on improving the traffic capacity and service levels.This paper builds a short-term traffic flows forecast model for highway network based on chaotic time series analysis and prediction theory.The forecast of the traffic flows in given areas can be calculated.Results show that this model is feasible and has a high accuracy.

关 键 词：高速公路网 交通流量 混沌理论 时间序列 预测 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]