再论含特大洪水系列的频率计算问题  

Further discussion on problems from calculation on frequency of flood series containing extraordinary event

作　　者：金光炎[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2011年第8期75-77,89,共4页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

摘　　要：叙述了不连序洪水系列(特大洪水和实测洪水系列)的经验频率计算、频率曲线绘制和参数估计等问题。认为在研制方法时应以不确定性较小的事件为主,并提出了评析意见及改进的建议。由于水文频率计算具有一定的不确定性、随机性和经验性,故需对计算结果进行综合平衡,通过合理性分析后取用。The empirical frequency calculation, frequency curve drawing and parameter estimation of the discontinuous flood series （ including extraordinary flood series and actual measured flood series） are described herein. It is considered that those events with less uncertainties must be mainly taken for the development of the method concerned, and then some appraising comments and improving suggestions are put forward as well. As the hydrologic frequency calculation has certain uncertainty, randomness and empiricality, the calculation resuhs must be used after rational analysis through a comprehensive balance.

关 键 词：特大洪水 实测洪水 水文频率计算 经验频率 适线法 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]