工程进度风险因素的非叠加性影响  

Non-additivity analysis on scheduling risks based on Bayesain networks

作　　者：刘俊艳[1] 王卓甫[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学工程管理研究所,南京210097

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2011年第8期1517-1523,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：江苏省研究生创新计划(CX09B_058R);河海大学优秀博士论文培养计划(2010B19014)

摘　　要：工程活动有时会受到单个风险因素影响,有时则同时会受到多个风险因素影响,现有研究很少关注多个风险因素同时作用于某一活动而产生的影响是叠加性影响还是非叠加性影响,运在一定程度上影响了工程管理者做风险应对时的决策准确性.拟采用贝叶斯网络验证风险因素同时发生时产生的影响是否等于各风险因素单独作用下所产生的影响之和.算例表明当多个风险因素同时发生变化时,对活动进度产生的影响为非叠加性影响.研究结果为决策者在做风险应对时提供了更完备的信息.In construction,risk factors may affect the scheduling of project activities individually or simultaneously,when several risks occur at the same time,the total effects on project activity duration could be non-additive impacts or additive impacts which were seldom be considered in existing research and appropriate methodologies for analyzing non-additivty are not existent.Considering the relationship between the effects which are caused by several risk factors simultaneously and the impacts which are caused by risk factors individually is helpful for the manager to completely understand the whole situation of project and make a better decision.In this paper,Bayesain network are proposed to analyze non-additivty, and the results from the calculating example shows that non-additive effects is exist when many risks impact on a activitiy simultaneously.

关 键 词：风险分析 非叠加性影响 贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：C935[经济管理—管理学]