防洪系统脆弱性的模糊极大熵诊断  

Fuzzy diagnosis of vulnerability to flood based on maximum entropy

作　　者：张灵[1] 陈晓宏[2] 王兆礼[3] 

机构地区：[1]广州大学地理科学学院,广州510006 [2]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广州510275 [3]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广州510641

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2011年第8期1600-1607,共8页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50839005;50909106;40801034);住房与城乡建设部科技计划(2010-K3-40);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB428405);武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室基金(2010B066)

摘　　要：参照可持续系统的特征,将防洪减灾过程分为防灾、承灾及恢复三个阶段,以脆弱性描述承灾阶段中防洪系统面临洪灾时应对、抵御洪水的能力,构建了防洪系统脆弱性诊断指标体系,基于GIS技术建立了基于极大熵原理的模糊诊断模型,提出了降低脆弱性的减灾策略.运用信息熵所反映实际样本的效用值修正权重,为权重分配提供了依据.应用实例符合北江下游防洪实际,说明了模型的可行性和合理性.With reference to the characteristics of the sustainable system,flood mitigation is supposed to be divided into three phases：flood control,disaster undertaking,recovery and reconstruction.Vulnerability is employed to describe the adaptability to flood of economic society and to reveal risk of flood disaster mitigation.By means of selecting dominating driving forces of withstanding capacity for flood,an indicator system is presented and a fuzzy assessment model is developed based on maximum entropy.The weights of assessment indicators in the model are obtained from the avail value reflected by the sample of information entropy,through which the weight allocation is shown more reasonable.The application of the proposed model in lower reaches of Beijiang river demonstrates its feasibility and validness.

关 键 词：防洪 脆弱性 诊断 地理信息系统 极大熵 模糊性 

分 类 号：TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]