基于鲁棒性分析的军事通信方案优选方法  

Robustness analysis based military communication alternatives optimization method

作　　者：李超[1] 石福丽[1] 杨峰[1] 郭晶 

机构地区：[1]国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院,长沙410073 [2]中国电子设备系统工程公司,北京100000

出　　处：《计算机应用研究》2011年第9期3414-3416,3422,共4页Application Research of Computers

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61074107)

摘　　要：在基于效能评估结果对多种军事通信方案进行排序和优选过程中,存在方案的最优性无法判断的问题。提出了一种基于鲁棒性分析的军事通信方案优选方法,建立了以最优概率表征通信方案不确定性的鲁棒性分析框架,主要包括基于已有数据样本拟合方案中指标值的Beta分布模型和使用蒙特卡洛仿真分析方案的最优概率方法。最后以某军事通信网络方案优选为例,说明该方法能够有效量化方案的不确定性,能为优选通信方案提供参考,具有良好的实用性。There is a problem that it＇ s difficult to judge the best in the process of the sorting and optimizing military communication alternatives based on the efficiency evaluation results. This paper put forward an optimization method on the basis of robustness analysis, and outlined of the robustness analysis framework what measure the military communication alternatives＇ indeterminacy using the probability of best, mainly included formulated in accordance with the Beta distribution module of respective index value advanced in the existing sampled fitting and the use of analyzing the probability of best rate of each proposal by Monte Carlo simulation. Ultimately, approach assumed in the dissertation is testified to be feasible and effective with, citing the example of a military communication network program catering to the counter-operation.

关 键 词：军事通信 效能 贝塔分布 蒙特卡洛 最优概率 鲁棒性分析 优选 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]