基于贝叶斯网络的煤矿安全诚信评价模型  

Coal mine safety integrity evaluation model based on Bayesian networks

作　　者：程东全[1] 顾锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2011年第4期230-233,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2009CB226107);国家安监总局安全生产科技计划项目(08-152);河南省重点科技攻关项目(092102310317)

摘　　要：构建了基于贝叶斯网络的煤矿安全诚信评价模型,用于评价煤矿企业安全诚信状况。该模型采用贝叶斯网络拓扑结构描述指标间的逻辑关系,利用联合条件概率表将指标间逻辑关系定量化,在评价具体煤矿时确定网络中根结点的置信度,最终将根结点置信度通过概率理论聚合到煤矿安全诚信度这一总指标。对平禹煤电公司安全诚信等级进行评定,表明该模型是合理有效的。The present paper intends to introduce an integrated coal mine safety evaluation model based on Bayesian network. This model is composed of four subsystems, each one of which is covered with its particular indexes. First of all, it is necessary to know that the topo-logical structure of Bayesian Network consists by nature of the techni- cal method and expertise system functioning as the consultant means for analyzing and judging logical relations of all the subsystems and indexes. Secondly, Bayesian parameters are displayed and ways for their manipulation in the present model so as to work out joint condi- tional probability estimation and the index systems, as well as the effective use of the expertise based on the detailed study of the collected questionnaires, and bootstrap method for dealing with the expertise. Thirdly, it is necessary to identify the degree of credibility of the re- port of coal companies in root node. When evaluating the safety mea- sures taken by any coal company, an inspection team has to be sent to examine the credibility degree of the company＇ s report through the network＇s topological structure. And, finally, the credibility degree in root nodes has been transmitted to the total index system with all the parameters and figures obtained and analyzed. By checking the expertise, the safety integrity indexes standardized can be used may include four levels, and the enterprise safety integrity guaranteed. A case study of the evaluation on the coal mine safety integrity in Henan Pingyu Coal ＆ Electricity Co., LTD was recommended. A check team from Henan Administration of Coal Mine Safety had examined the coal company, and they had given the credibility degree in root nodes. Then, the degree of the coal mine safety integrity and the figure proves to be 0.699. According to the integrated safety standard, the coal mine safety integrity belonged to the third degree, and the common examination was carried out. The case indicated that the model proves to be reasonable and effective.

关 键 词：安全管理工程 安全诚信 贝叶斯网络 煤矿 评价模型 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]