放射性材料运输事故泄漏概率分析  

Probabilistic analysis of radioactive materials release arising from transportation accident

作　　者：谢朝阳[1] 罗景润[1] 郭历伦[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国工程物理研究院总体工程研究所,四川绵阳621900

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2011年第4期242-244,共3页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：根据放射性材料运输事故过程探讨了放射性材料道路运输导致放射性泄漏污染事故的风险评价模型,基于运输事故统计数据和事故载荷环境严重度分类建立了放射性材料运输泄漏事故发生率的定量评估方法。应用结果表明,该方法能对放射性材料运输泄漏事故概率进行初步定量估算。In the cases of traffic accident involving transportation of radioactive materials, the radioactive materials would release into the environment following the container breakage as a result of fire or im-pact force. Therefore, risk assessment on radioactive materials trans-port accident is conducive for accident prevention and risk control. Considering the accident process of radioactive materials transportation, the risk analytical frame of radioactive materials release is investigated. The environment loads severity of truck accidents were represented by impact velocity and fire duration according to the sta-tistical data of truck accidents. The environment loads severity could be classified to four categories. Based on the statistical data of impact velocity and fire duration of transport accident as well as the classifi- cation of accident severity, combined with the failure characteristics of transport container, the quantitative assessment method of release accident rate for radioactive material transport was developed. The method and the statistical accident data was then applied in one ease study. At last, based on the assessment method, the design of pack- age container capability is discussed for controlling the risk of ra- dioactive materials transport accidents. The results show that by im- proving the capability of package container, the probability of ra- dioactive material release can be reduced obviously. The application results of the developed assessment method show that a preliminary quantitative estimation for radioactive material release in transport accident can be obtained. Nevertheless, there is still lacking of corresponding statistical data of accident load environment and further investigations are needed.

关 键 词：核安全 风险分析 运输事故 严重度 

分 类 号：X913.1[环境科学与工程—安全科学]