阿克苏河年径流变化的非线性特征  

The Nonlinear Characteristics of Annual Runoff Change in Aksu River

作　　者：禹朴家[1,2] 徐海量[1] 刘世薇[1,2] 安红燕[1,2] 张青青[1,2] 龚君君[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科举院新疆毕杰与地王单研究所,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,乌鲁木齐830054

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2011年第8期1412-1422,共11页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：自然科学基金项目(30600092,30970549,40971284);国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAC17B01);新疆社科基金项目(075YB012)

摘　　要：以阿克苏河流域的托什干河、库玛拉克河和阿克苏河干流为例,基于1957—2008年的径流序列,运用小波分析和R/S分析方法分析了阿克苏河径流过程的非线性特征,揭示了流域径流的变化规律,得出以下结论:①库玛拉克河、托什干河及阿克苏河干流的年径流序列均呈增加的趋势,且都以20世纪80年代后期为分界点分为两个阶段:前期径流较少,处于枯水期;后期径流较多,处于丰水期。②阿克苏河流域年径流量变化存在较长周期,长周期中又包含着短周期;其中,18 a和22 a的周期贯穿于整个时间序列,为流域径流的第一主周期。③流域内三条河流各个时段径流量的Hurst指数值几乎都大于0.5,表明流域径流的时间序列具有长期持续的特征;从各条河流最后一个时段的Hurst指数可以推断,在2008年后的一段时间里流域径流量将会继续保持增加趋势。As a demonstration from the three rivers of the Aksu River Basin, the paper checked the nonlinear characteristics of annual runoff processes from 1957 to 2008 by using the wavelet a- nalysis method and R/S analysis. The main conclusions are as follows： The annual runoff trends of the mainstream of Aksu River, the Kumlak River and Tuoshigan River are increasing; the trends are divided into two parts ： the runoff is less in the prophase and more in the latter period. The time series of runoff in Aksu River all has long cycles, which contains some short ones. The period of 18 years and 22 years is the first period, which is through all the time sequence. The Hurst index of the three rivers in the Aksu River Basin is over 0.5 in each period, which indi- cates that the time series of runoff have the long trend. The Hurst index of each river in the last period indicates that the annual runoff in the Aksu River Basin will show an increasing trend in the future.

关 键 词：径流 非线性特征 小波分析 R/S分析 阿克苏河 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]