资产价格波动、人民币汇率升值与短期国际资本流动风险防范——基于随机风险溢价KFG理论模型的修正  

Asset Price Fluctuations,Exchange Rate Appreciation and Prevention for the Risk of Short-term International Capital Flows:the Theoretical Modified Model Based on Stochastic Risk Premlum KFG

作　　者：周虎群[1] 李富有[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《西北大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2011年第4期59-63,共5页Journal of Northwest University：Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金项目(09XJA790010)

摘　　要：自2006年以来,我国的资产泡沫严重,研究发现资产价格上涨预期是诱发短期国际资本流动冲击的一个重要因素,严重时会产生金融市场危机风险。基于这样的背景,通过引入资产价格波动变量,修正了Flood引入随机风险溢价的KFG理论模型,分析中国短期国际资本流动触发机制,探究资产价格波动对短期国际资本流动的作用机制。并以此为基础分析中国现有宏观政策对短期国际资本流动风险的作用和政策效果,提出减少投机性国际短期资本流动合理化的政策建议。The asset bubble has began to appear Since 2006 in China.Research indicates that expected asset price inflation is an important factor of short-term international capital＇s flow.It can even lead to financial market risks.Based on this background,the paper introduces the uncertainty of the KFG Flood model and modify First-Generation Models-KFG to analyze the trigger mechanism of short-term international capital flow,and explore the mechanism of short-term international capital flow risk.The writer of the paper has found the current macroeconomic policy risk on short-term role of international capital flows and policy effectiveness.At last,the policy recommendations to reduce short-term international speculative capital flows are proposed.

关 键 词：短期国际资本流动 资产价格波动 随机风险溢价 KFG金融风险 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]