边疆地区农村贫困程度的测度与模拟分析——以新疆维吾尔自治区为例  

Rural Poverty Measurement and Simulation in Border Areas: A Case Study of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

作　　者：刘林[1] 龚新蜀[1] 李翠锦[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2011年第8期83-89,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目<边疆民族特殊类型贫困地区贫困和反贫困绩效的调查与评估>(09XMZ047);新疆生产建设兵团社会科学基金项目<新疆贫困地区扶贫开发机制研究>(10BTYB13);石河子大学研究生创新基金项目<资源环境约束下的新疆产业转型研究>(YJCX2010-Z07)

摘　　要：利用2000—2009年新疆农村收入分组数据,首先计算历年新疆农村FGT贫困指数,分析新疆农村贫困程度的变化情况;其次对新疆农村FGT贫困指数进行分解,探讨经济增长、收入分配和贫困线变动对新疆农村贫困程度的影响;最后模拟分析各个贫困指标对贫困线变动的敏感程度。研究结果表明:新千年开始后新疆农村贫困程度变化具有一定的阶段性特点,大体经历了大幅下降、平缓变动、小幅上扬三个阶段;FGT贫困指数分解后发现,各期影响因素作用不一,经济增长的减贫效应最为明显,收入分配状况的改善或者恶化产生了不一样的减贫作用,贫困线上调最明显的效应是新疆农村贫困面扩大;模拟贫困线上调后发现各贫困指标对贫困线较小幅度的变动具有较高的敏感性。新疆农村的贫困问题比较复杂,最近有进一步加重的趋势,尤其是最贫困人口的境况需要获得更多的关注,基于此提出了相关政策建议。Using rural income grouped data from 2000-2009 the authors calculate the FGT poverty index and analyze the changes of rural poverty in Xinjiang. Then the authors try to decompose the FGT poverty index to study the effect of economic growth, income distribution and poverty line changed on rural poverty in Xinjiang. Finally, the authors study the sensitivity of the various poverty indicators to poverty line changes. The results show that Xinjiang rural poverty has three phases： sharp decline, gentle movements and slight rise. After the decomposition of FGT poverty index, economic growth has the most obvious improvement in poverty reduction; the effects of income distribution are different~ poverty line increased strongly expand the surface of rural poverty in Xinjiang and all poverty indicators has high sensitivity to the poverty line adjusted. The problem in Xinjiang is more complex and the rural poverty tends to worse. We should pay more attention on the poorest. Based on the results, we propose some policy recommendations.

关 键 词：边疆地区 农村贫困FGT贫困指数 LORENZ曲线 

分 类 号：F222.34[经济管理—国民经济]